Appologetics: The Law of Large Numbers

In continuation of my last post I want to discuss another issue that came up recently in an argument with an atheist. When confronted with the idea that Ockham's Razor works much better for the theory of creation than for that of evolution, he turned to the Law of Large Numbers. This is a common tactic. Obviously that probability of life happening randomly is very small. Actually the probability is zero. And the probability of it happening over and over is even smaller. P(A∩B)=P(A)*P(B). That is the probability of A and B happening is the product of their individual probability. Remember, that when you multiply 2 fractions (i.e. very small number; less than one; approaching zero) you get an even smaller number. So, the laws of probability say that there is even less chance of having 2 highly improbable events occur. Now, the evolutionist grants all this ("The probability is zero but we are here…") and then trots out the Law of Large Numbers to argue that in an infinite amount of time anything could happen. Here are my 2 responses.
Remember, that when you multiply 2 fractions (i.e. very small number; less than one; approaching zero) you get an even smaller number. So, the laws of probability say that there is even less chance of having 2 highly improbable events occur. Now, the evolutionist grants all this ("The probability is zero but we are here…") and then trots out the Law of Large Numbers to argue that in an infinite amount of time anything could happen. Here are my 2 responses.

First, this kind of reasoning means that any kind of miracle could happen, right? I mean, if a random electric shock could make a protoplasm coalesce into a living single-celled organism then is it any less likely that some how the Sun could stand still for Joshua for a few hours? Or that a virgin could conceive a child? Or that a man could come back to life? Basically, the naturalistic philosopher wants to reserve this kind of magic for his own presuppositions!

Second, this is not what the Law of Large Numbers really says anyway. Without being too technical the Law of Large Numbers throws out outliers instead of proving their existence as the evolutionist is trying to use it to do. Let us examine a common example of the Law. There are 2 sides of a coin. So naturally we know that the chances of getting either a "heads" or a "tails" is 50% on any coin toss. As we toss multiple times we expect to see about half-in-half of the two sides. But if we actually start tossing we may see 7 of 10 heads and 3/10 tails. Is our probability wrong? No, the Law of Large Numbers says that while at low sampling we may see this kind of aberrancy, that as the numbers get large these numbers are going to converge on the expected 50-50. So, while we may see 70% heads on 10 tosses, the chance of seeing that 70% on 10,000 tosses is effectively zero. When you start talking about millions you just won't see anything outside of ±0.01%.

So if you get into a debate with an evolutionist who just cannot except miracles and creation here is some ammo to refute them as we stand ready to give an answer of what we believe.

April 17 & thoughts of appologetics

Well, friends this blog has gone from deep thoughts on life to a bulletin board. But fear not, I do not plan on staying like this. I have been busy with philosophical pursuits like pressure washing and painting. I have hardly had time to skim through the 100+ blog articles a day that I normally consume let alone post.

One quick thought that I have been turning over: I was in a discussion the other day with an atheist. He tried to use Ockham's Razor. (Aside: if you never saw the movie Contact the venerable razor plays a prominent part in this movie about faith and science.) I realized a key point. Ockham's Razor says that when choosing between 2 viable options the simplest answer is the most likely. This really works to the advantage of the Bible since it is much simpler to believe that an all-powerful God spoke and the kosmos came into being. But the real crux is that the naturalist/rationalist/evolutionist cannot use the razor! He has presuppositionaly disposed of the idea of God and thus is not using it to distinguish to options but to ratify the one he already believes to be true! I pointed this out to my pointy-headed friend and he moved on to the Law of Large numbers. More on that next time.

Easter Paean

Christ is arisen
Joy to Thee, mortal!
Out from His prison,
Forth from its portal!
Christ is not sleeping,
Seek Him no longer;
Strong was His keeping,
Jesus was stronger.

Christ is arisen,
Seek Him not here,
Lonely His prison,
Empty his beir;
Vain His entombing,
Spices and lawn,
Vain the perfuming,
Jesus is gone!

Christ is arisen,
Joy to thee, Mortal!
Out of His prison,
Forth from its portal!
Christ is not sleeping,
Seek Him no longer;
Strong was His keeping,
Jesus was stronger!

Christ is arisen,
Joy to thee, Mortal!
Empty His prison,
Broken His portal!
Rising He giveth
His shroud to the sod;
Risen, He liveth,
And liveth to God!

This is the song that I woke up singing on Easter morning. I wanted to share it with you.

I also decided to find out where it came from since Goethe is not often ranked with Watts and Wesley! It actually comes from the play Faustus and below is the original. Thankfully Gordon Young not only wrote a beautiful score for this piece but formed it into a great presentation of the Easter story. It is very difficult to sing not because of the music but because it is so powerful in the comparisons that it makes.

Chorus of Angels.
Christ is arisen!
Joy to mortality,
Whom earth's carnality,
Creeping fatality,
Held as in prison!
Chorus of Women.
Rare spices we carried
And laid on His breast;
We tenderly buried
Him whom we loved best;
Cloths and bands round Him,
Spotless we wound Him o'er;
Ah! and we've found Him,
Christ, here no more.
Chorus of Angels.
Christ is ascended!
Blessed the loving one
Who endured, moving one,
Trials improving one,
Till they were ended!
Chorus of Disciples.
Though He, victorious,
From the grave's prison,
Living and glorious,
Nobly has risen,
Though He, in bliss of birth,
Creative Joy is near,
Ah! on the breast of earth
We are to suffer here.
He left His very Own
Pining for Him we miss;
Ah! we bemoan,
Master, Thy bliss!
Chorus of Angels.
Christ is arisen
Out of Corruption's womb!
Burst bonds that prison,
Joy over the tomb!
Actively pleading Him,
Showing love, heeding Him,
Brotherly feeding Him,
Preaching, far speeding Him,
Rapture succeeding Him,
To you the Master's near,
To you is here!

Good Friday

Holy Week is quickly passing. All around people are enjoying spring break and spring. I hope you have been thinking about what we celebrate this week. Christians should really make this time into something that stands out. Is not the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ the very heart of the Gospel?
In that vein I am looking forward to Good Friday. We started celebrating this special day about 10 years ago at our church. It is one of the highlights of my year. Some have questioned why or if we should celebrate or commemorate Christ's death. My answer is that while, "Christ rose for our salvation," it is also necessary to remember that, "Christ died for our sins." I think there is also a parallel between celebrating Christmas as bigger than Easter. Christmas is meaningless without Easter. And the resurrection is meaningless without the cross. Imagine if Christ had drowned in the sea or at the foot of a cliff or been stoned. He could have risen from the dead and it would not be at all the same as His death on the cross and resurrection 3 days later.
The counterpoint of a bright Easter morning is the darkness of the night when we take time to think about what Christ did on the cross; when we take communion; when we sing a hymn as those eleven friends did on that night long ago.
I hope that even if your church does not observe Good Friday that you will set aside some time this week to meditate on the awful, horrific, bloody sacrifice that Jesus Christ willingly made to fulfill His Father's will.